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| Emre Uslu: Why would the PKK need a cease-fire now? |
| 2012-03-05 09:41 |
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4/3-2012-As the spring season arrives, Turkey once again has been focusing on whether the Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK) violence will increase or not. There have been conflicting signs from the PKK. On the one hand, the PKK leaders have threatened Turkey and have said 2012 will be the final year to gain what the PKK wants, while on the other hand, various reports have appeared in the media indicating that peace talks will resume once again.
It seems that Turkish analysts are too much focused on what is going on inside Turkey and have misread the PKK’s future plans. The PKK, however, is not concentrated on the fight inside Turkey; it is rather focusing on what is going on in Syria.
In order to understand what the PKK wants one needs to understand why the PKK ended the peace negotiations between Abdullah Öcalan and the National Intelligence Organization (MİT) last July by killing 13 soldiers. As of last June, the PKK’s falcons posted on their official website a long analysis stating that the Arab Spring brought new opportunities to the PKK therefore, the negotiations with Turkey would harm the PKK in the long run, instead of negotiating, the PKK should postpone the peace talks and resume violence until the new developments in Syria show whether the Assad regime would stay in power.
While ending the peace negotiations with Turkey the PKK shifted its concentration onto Syria and made a deal with the Assad regime to move 1,000 to 2,000 militants to Syria. Bashar al-Assad hoped that the PKK would keep the Kurdish region calm and the PKK hoped that Syria would be a new opportunity for the PKK. It seems that the PKK’s plan is working. The Assad regime has allowed the PKK’s Syrian branch, the Democratic Union Party (PYD), to run the region and allowed the opening of Kurdish schools while PKK militants maintain security in the region.
The PKK on the other hand has started eliminating possible Kurdish leaders who will resist the PKK’s activities in the region. Mashaal Tammo was one of the important political figures in the region that were killed by unknown forces, but it would not be a surprise if the PKK was involved in the killing of Mr. Tammo. Another permanent figure in the region who was killed was Abdullah Bedro, the strongest tribal leader in the region. The PKK denied its involvement in the Bedro incident, yet when a PKK leader’s body was discovered at the scene of the clash in which Bedro was killed, the PKK had to admit its involvement in the assassination.
A few weeks ago, the PYD declared “democratic autonomy” in Syria and soon after, the PKK leadership and PKK-affiliated media started paying more attention to Syria. Ideologue of the PKK Mustafa Karasu along with Amed Dicle, former head of RojTV, wrote pieces on Syria, claiming that the Justice and Development Party (AKP) government’s policy had collapsed in Syria because Kurds declared democratic autonomy and that Kurds would defend their right to democratic autonomy. Both analyses indicate that the PKK would concentrate on Syria more than Turkey because the PKK considers Syria a strategic location for its aims to force Turkey to accept “democratic autonomy” for Turkey’s Kurds as well.
One does not need to remind that the Kurdish Communities Union’s (KCK) strategic plan is to attain “democratic autonomy” in Turkey, Syria, Iran and Iraq to unify Kurdish people under the umbrella of the KCK system. The KCK system is claimed be a system that respects nation-state borders but advocates Kurdish unification through autonomous regions in each country. Therefore, for the PKK, Syria is a good start for the KCK’s grand vision to establish “democratic autonomy.”
From now on, it is not the developments in Turkey that will determine the PKK’s strategy of whether to intensify terrorist activities in the summer or declare a cease-fire, rather it will be the developments in Syria that will determine the PKK’s strategy this spring and summer.
For now, given the fact that the PKK has limited resources to fight on two fronts, Syria and Turkey, it is likely that the PKK will declare a cease-fire to shift its full attention to Syria. It is likely, however, that the PKK will try to keep Turkey busy with internal conflicts, such as the Alevi vs. Sunni tension, and therefore, will take advantage of such tension and maneuver in the areas of tension of Turkey that are the least costly and strategically important so as to keep Turkey busy. On the other hand, its militants could settle in Syria to maintain the declared “democratic autonomy” in Syria. That is why the PKK will need a cease-fire in Turkey, if not possible, or less clashes to focus on Syria.
Therefore, the PKK’s recent attempt to create tension in provinces like Adiyaman and Hatay is not a coincidence, but rather a deliberate attempt of PKK’s strategy to keep Turkey occupied with Alevi-Sunni tension and to keep it out of Syrian affairs as much as possible.
TODAY´S ZAMAN |
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